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Avocado supplies down with Mexican crop transition


Overview of the avocado supply by Denise Junqueiro of Mission Produce, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.


Original published in FreshPlaza.com on July 15, 2021 

Supplies of avocados are down somewhat even with fruit being sourced from multiple regions currently.

Volumes (in Kg) of avocados in the US Market

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

“As Mexico transitions into the Flor Loca crop, and the California season nears its end, the U.S. industry supply is down,” says Hector Soltero, senior director of sales planning for Mission Produce based in Oxnard, CA.

Main o rigins (Volumes in Kg) of avocado in the US Market

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Domestically, California’s avocado industry has harvested the majority of its anticipated 250 million lb. crop. Sizing of the fruit is skewing towards sizes 60 and 48 on the state’s avocados, which started harvest earlier this year and sees peak availability through August.

From Mexico, the country that ships the most avocados to the U.S., its crop size for the 2020-2021 year is approximately 2.9 billion lbs. of fruit. Looking ahead, the preliminary crop size for 2021-2022 is an anticipated 3 billion lbs. of avocados. “The Mexico crop is also skewing toward small fruit sizes 48 and 60,” says Soltero. “Compared to a few weeks ago, prices are higher due to the transitioning of the crop in Mexico. The industry will typically see higher prices during transition until the new crop is in full swing.”

Smaller Peruvian fruit

And then there’s Peru where harvest is going strong and anticipated to continue through September. “For Peru, the industry is in peak season of the anticipated 1 billion lb. crop, which is skewing towards smaller fruit sizes 60 and 48,” says Soltero.

At the same time, Soltero notes that Mission Produce also turns to South Africa to continue providing regions such as Europe with year-round supplies of Hass avocados.

Altogether, the supplies of avocados are similar to last year at this time. “Looking ahead, the industry expects the market to balance out as Mexico completes its transition to the Flor Loca crop,” says Soltero.

Meanwhile demand for avocados continues to be strong. “Consumption continues to increase year-over year,” says Soltero. Soltero adds that to keep up with increasing demand, Mission Produce consistently works on advancing its infrastructure and expanding its network and developing new merchandising programs to meet those needs. “The biggest challenge is to balance supply with demand,” Soltero says.

The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.

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