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Agronometrics in Charts: Will Chilean cherries take advantage of high U.S. market pricing?


Between weeks 27 and 32 of the 2020-21 season, cherries registered higher average prices than those of the last four seasons in the U.S. market, as well as very similar volumes to the past year’s.

The great unknown is whether this price level will be maintained now that a new season has begun in the southern hemisphere with a forecast of historic harvests and exports from Chile.

As we can see in the graph below, in week 32, the last average prices registered in the North American market were of US$6.17 per kilo, a 31 percent rise from the 2019-20 season where average prices were US$4.71 per kilo.

Price of cherries in the U.S. market (USD/KG)
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In the latest Chilean seasons, prices from the southern hemisphere began to be registered in week 47. In that week the average prices of the 2019/2020 season began at US$10.5 per kilo, 12 percent higher than the previous year when they were listed as US$9.34 per kilo.

Historical prices of Chilean cherries in the U.S. market (USD/KG)
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In relation to the volumes of Chilean cherries on the United State market, the peak in the last two seasons was obtained in week 51. In the 2019/2020 season, the North American market received a total of 5,538,276 kilos, a 21 percent drop in comparison to the 2018-19 season when the volume of cherries was 7,030,800 kilos which could have pushed prices down.

Volume is Chilean cherries in the U.S. market
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

We will have to wait to see what will happen in this new season for Chilean cherries in the U.S. market, and wait for the first volumes of cherries from Chile to begin to see what impact they have on the last prices at the close of week 32.

Written by: Cristian Crespo F.
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on November 17, 2020 (Link)

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