Skip to main content

Agronometrics in Charts: Will the recent trend of stable avocado prices continue?


The U.S. avocado market has been a rollercoaster ride so far this year, but the last five weeks have offered a sense of stability that has been absent from 2020 thus far. That might come as a bit of a surprise considering Covid-19 and all the unrest that has been making headlines over the same time period.

Comparing the pricing to the historic data it looks like the market is lining up to where it was in 2018, making it a good basis for comparison in our analysis.

Hass Avocado Prices (Price Reported) | Non-Organic


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The volumes, however, look quite a bit different then what we saw in 2018, dipping from week 20 to 24, whereas in 2018 we saw volumes spike.

Considering that avocados can be stored, a spike in volume never tells the whole story, but we can take an average over the last two months to make an rough estimation of how much fruit is actually moving into the market. By this calculation, 2020 has moved 5% more volume than 2018.

Historic Avocado Volumes | Non-Organic


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Volumes from California and Peru are both closely tracking the same levels they were at in 2018. This means that most of the new volumes are coming from Mexico, which has seen an increase of 10% over 2018.

The Hass Avocado Board is forecasting that over the next eight weeks the market will receive 13% more fruit than it moved in 2018.

Unlike the last eight weeks, most of the growth is expected from Peru, which is expected to send around 5% more volume than 2018 and California which is expected to send 25% more volume. Mexico on the other hand is expected to remain similar to its 2018 volumes with only a 2% increase.

This forecast suggests that prices should be lower over the next couple of months, dropping modestly by 5% or 10%.

This expectation comes with a lot of caveats, such as the volume forecast being correct, Covid-19, lockdowns, a second spike, etc. But going by the numbers, hopefully the markets will remain stable as they transition to be able to handle the coming volumes.

Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on July 01, 2020 (Link)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in FreshPlaza.com on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …

Blueberry boom: Worldwide growth creates challenges for NW producers

Overview of the northwest blueberry season by Doug Krahmer of Berries Northwest, Cort Brazelton of Fall Creek Farm and Nursery, Kasey Cronquist of the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council and Mark Hurst of Hurst's Berry Farm, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in www.capitalpress.com on July 30, 2020

ALBANY, Ore. — On a seasonably warm July afternoon in the fertile Willamette Valley, Doug Krahmer stood between rows of organic blueberries and watched as a large mechanical harvester rolled slowly through the field, rattling bushes heavy with ripe fruit.

Measuring a little more than 15 feet tall, 11 feet wide and weighing 7 tons, the harvester seemingly floated in the distance over neat rows while fiberglass rods, or “fingers,” shook the berries onto a conveyor belt that swooped them to the upper deck and into plastic crates.

From there, the crates were loaded into refrigerated trucks and driven from the farm north of Albany, Ore., to a packing shed east of Po…