Skip to main content

Agronometrics in Charts: Will the recent trend of stable avocado prices continue?


The U.S. avocado market has been a rollercoaster ride so far this year, but the last five weeks have offered a sense of stability that has been absent from 2020 thus far. That might come as a bit of a surprise considering Covid-19 and all the unrest that has been making headlines over the same time period.

Comparing the pricing to the historic data it looks like the market is lining up to where it was in 2018, making it a good basis for comparison in our analysis.

Hass Avocado Prices (Price Reported) | Non-Organic


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The volumes, however, look quite a bit different then what we saw in 2018, dipping from week 20 to 24, whereas in 2018 we saw volumes spike.

Considering that avocados can be stored, a spike in volume never tells the whole story, but we can take an average over the last two months to make an rough estimation of how much fruit is actually moving into the market. By this calculation, 2020 has moved 5% more volume than 2018.

Historic Avocado Volumes | Non-Organic


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Volumes from California and Peru are both closely tracking the same levels they were at in 2018. This means that most of the new volumes are coming from Mexico, which has seen an increase of 10% over 2018.

The Hass Avocado Board is forecasting that over the next eight weeks the market will receive 13% more fruit than it moved in 2018.

Unlike the last eight weeks, most of the growth is expected from Peru, which is expected to send around 5% more volume than 2018 and California which is expected to send 25% more volume. Mexico on the other hand is expected to remain similar to its 2018 volumes with only a 2% increase.

This forecast suggests that prices should be lower over the next couple of months, dropping modestly by 5% or 10%.

This expectation comes with a lot of caveats, such as the volume forecast being correct, Covid-19, lockdowns, a second spike, etc. But going by the numbers, hopefully the markets will remain stable as they transition to be able to handle the coming volumes.

Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on July 01, 2020 (Link)

Popular posts from this blog

Agronometrics in Charts: Demand for berries skyrockets in 2021

This time for the ‘In Charts’ series we will give an update as to how the average prices of berries have been behaving. Specifically, we will look at the prices of blueberries, raspberries, strawberries, and blackberries in the United States market and compare them with previous seasons. An increase in demand, brought on by the tendency to consume “superfoods” such as berries during the Covid-19 pandemic, seem to have pushed prices up despite the fact that volumes imported by the United States have been similar or higher than those of previous years. Let's look at each particular case: Blueberries Blueberry prices experienced a significant increase from week 3 of 2021, showing the highest prices of the last 5 seasons for the same date. If we observe the following chart, we can see that, for week 7 of 2021, the average price of conventional blueberries was $7.60 per kilo. This is 24 percent higher than in 2020 when the average price was $6.14 per kilo. Volumes for blueberr

Peru's blueberry oversupply takes its toll on export price

Overview of the Peruvian blueberry season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.   Original published in FreshPlaza.com   on November 25, 2020  This year's Peruvian blueberry season began in June with the export of 1,010 tons worth 5 million dollars. These figures represented a 25% increase in volume and a 77% increase in value over the same month of 2019. The lower production in the northern hemisphere due to weather problems allowed producers to achieve attractive prices of $ 5.15 per kilogram in June. Volume (in Kg) of blueberry from Perú in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) The good reception of Peruvian blueberries and the increase in prices encouraged exports during July, a month in which the country shipped 4,808 tons (+ 108%) for 26 million dollars (+ 102%). In this month, the increase in the Peruvian supply generated a slight 3% fall in the typical prices of the month,

Tight raspberry volumes make for more “normal” pricing

Overview of the raspberry supply by Ben Escoe of Twin River Berries, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published in FreshPlaza.com   on May 12, 2021  “They’re starting to pick up, but it’s been tight--really tight,” says Ben Escoe of Twin River Berries in Portland, OR, noting this largely has to do with the weather conditions in Mexico. “It’s been cold and windy there which has caused damage in the fields and contributed to the low supply. Year over year, the volume is comparable or even better. But demand is high and forecast to actual supply has been lower.” Mexico grows raspberries for most of the year, stopping only for the rainy season which begins at the end of June or early July. Meanwhile California’s volume won’t really begin until the middle to the end of May. Volumes (in Kg) of raspberries from Mexico in the US Market​ Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) Higher berry deman