Skip to main content

Avocados in Charts: What can we expect from the market during the rest of 2019?


As Mexico takes over as the main avocado supplier of the U.S. market, producers are setting their sights on the fall season leading up to the end of the year, right before volumes begin ramping up for the Superbowl.

In this scenario, I want to take a look at what insights the market data has to offer and what we could expect in the coming months.

After the period of massive volatility through the spring and summer, volumes are finally settling down. They are almost perfectly matching up to where they were last year, with September volumes coming in just 1% lower year-on-year.

Non-Organic Avocado Volumes by Origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

At the same time, we can appreciate a healthy increase of 5% in prices compared to last year. Price rises when volumes are equal are to be expected, as they reflect the growth of the category. Generally, this growth can vary from month to month, averaging about 6%-10% year-on-year.

Non-Organic Avocado Volumes by Origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

This market data gives some context to the latest forecast made available by the Hass Avocado Board (HAB), which is expecting a 5% increase in volume from week 40 through the end of the year. Should this volume forecast be correct, I would expect average prices from October to be up to 5% on last year.

Nobody in the industry will have forgotten last year's strike from Mexico, and I haven't either. Usually, dramatic events like that are seen as outliers that are to be ignored. Fortunately, however, if we look at this period as a single unit of time, it encompasses last year’s strike entirely, which basically shifted volumes from weeks 44 through 46 back three weeks, almost like digging a hole and piling up the dirt right next to it.

After all the backed-up volume finally got through the system, it looks like by week 50 we were back to volumes representative of actual supply.

Because the shift in volume didn’t have much of an effect on pricing outside of what would be expected - given sudden changes in volume - I was able to draw my conclusions by looking at the entire period, which is then comparable to the forecast published by the HAB.

Non-Organic Avocado Volumes from Mexico (The Strike)

<
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

Looking back at the previous forecast

About three months ago I did the same exercise, where I had written that the U.S. avocado markets could settle below last year's prices. I don’t want to shy away from this article, so I wanted to take a bit of time to look at what happened - especially as prices did not settle below last year’s and I don't expect them to do so before the end of the year.

The premise of the previous article was based on a HAB volume forecast for Mexico released on the week of July 14 which suggested that Mexican volumes would increase by 20% through the week of Oct. 13. The forecast ended up being pretty good - according to the USDA, Mexico sent 19% more fruit in the last three months.

As we saw in the first chart, however, this increase was not reflected in the total volumes for avocados. This variance can be explained by looking at the volumes from California and Peru which shipped less fruit in September compared to last year, balancing out Mexico's increase and getting total volumes to the 1% decrease previously commented.

Historic Non-Organic Avocado Volumes from Mexico


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)


Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on October 08, 2019 (Link)

Popular posts from this blog

Agronometrics in Charts: Demand for berries skyrockets in 2021

This time for the ‘In Charts’ series we will give an update as to how the average prices of berries have been behaving. Specifically, we will look at the prices of blueberries, raspberries, strawberries, and blackberries in the United States market and compare them with previous seasons. An increase in demand, brought on by the tendency to consume “superfoods” such as berries during the Covid-19 pandemic, seem to have pushed prices up despite the fact that volumes imported by the United States have been similar or higher than those of previous years. Let's look at each particular case: Blueberries Blueberry prices experienced a significant increase from week 3 of 2021, showing the highest prices of the last 5 seasons for the same date. If we observe the following chart, we can see that, for week 7 of 2021, the average price of conventional blueberries was $7.60 per kilo. This is 24 percent higher than in 2020 when the average price was $6.14 per kilo. Volumes for blueberr

Peru's blueberry oversupply takes its toll on export price

Overview of the Peruvian blueberry season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.   Original published in FreshPlaza.com   on November 25, 2020  This year's Peruvian blueberry season began in June with the export of 1,010 tons worth 5 million dollars. These figures represented a 25% increase in volume and a 77% increase in value over the same month of 2019. The lower production in the northern hemisphere due to weather problems allowed producers to achieve attractive prices of $ 5.15 per kilogram in June. Volume (in Kg) of blueberry from Perú in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) The good reception of Peruvian blueberries and the increase in prices encouraged exports during July, a month in which the country shipped 4,808 tons (+ 108%) for 26 million dollars (+ 102%). In this month, the increase in the Peruvian supply generated a slight 3% fall in the typical prices of the month,

Tight raspberry volumes make for more “normal” pricing

Overview of the raspberry supply by Ben Escoe of Twin River Berries, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published in FreshPlaza.com   on May 12, 2021  “They’re starting to pick up, but it’s been tight--really tight,” says Ben Escoe of Twin River Berries in Portland, OR, noting this largely has to do with the weather conditions in Mexico. “It’s been cold and windy there which has caused damage in the fields and contributed to the low supply. Year over year, the volume is comparable or even better. But demand is high and forecast to actual supply has been lower.” Mexico grows raspberries for most of the year, stopping only for the rainy season which begins at the end of June or early July. Meanwhile California’s volume won’t really begin until the middle to the end of May. Volumes (in Kg) of raspberries from Mexico in the US Market​ Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) Higher berry deman