Skip to main content

Pears in Charts: USA Pears CEO on two interesting factors this season


In response to the article we wrote a couple of weeks ago, I spoke to Kevin Moffitt, the President and CEO of USA Pears. He had some more insight about the upcoming pear season, which I wanted to share with our readers in this week’s In Charts installment.

Because the last article focused on the Washington market data, Kevin was prompted to mention that the Hood River district, in Oregon, is forecasting more pears than the Wenatchee district in Washington - the first time this has happened in many years. Washington, however, will still put up the largest numbers overall.

From the standpoint of a market analyst, this is an interesting development, we don't know if the switch between Hood River and Wenatchee will be a one time event or not, but it does seem to reinforce the downward trend that has been observed in Washington fruit over the last five years against an increased market share for Oregon.

Non-Organic Pears Volumes Sold on the Domestic Market by State of Origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

Another important item that Kevin mentioned based on the previous article was the possible effect that a strong grape season could have on pear prices.

I pulled the data to create the chart below comparing grape volumes next to pear volumes. Considering grapes commercialize about three times the volume of pears, we set them on different axes to show where the crops overlap. The biggest impact that grapes could have on pears should be towards the beginning of the season in September, October and November - at the height of the U.S. grape season, as pears come online.

Last year California grapes had a banner season, greatly oversupplying the market and pushing down prices. We wrote a more in-depth analysis of this last month in our Grapes in Charts article.

Kevin believes that the grapes made a complicated pear market tougher. They flooded grocery store shelves and took a larger percentage of ad space for promotions, leaving less room for pears. What’s more, rock bottom prices for grapes make an attractive purchase for clients, and "at the end of the day how many pounds of fruit will people really purchase, although they should eat much more fruits and vegetables".

With Grapes expected to be 3% down on last year's crop, the relationship between these two commodities will be an interesting one to follow.

Non-Organic Pear and Grape Volumes


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)


Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on September 17, 2019 (Link)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in FreshPlaza.com on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …

Price Alerts! are here for all

As we bring price alerts to Agronometrics we thought we would pen a piece on our thinking behind the service as well as the methodology for it.

The idea for the Alerts arose from our conversations with the industry, where several people expressed high interest in knowing when there are important changes in the market prices that could affect their business.

This impetus created the Price Alerts! service, whereby we monitor daily average prices of every commodity on our platform, so that you don’t have to. As soon as the difference in price reaches a certain threshold you get an email alerting you of said price change. You can take a look at our sample report through this link (US Avocado Price Alert!)

In order not overflow our users with these email alerts, we have used some fancy statistical analysis and determined the required values so as to send some 12 alerts per year for each commodity. In the table below you will find the list of commodities along with their estimated limits t…