Skip to main content

Avocados in Charts: What will be Colombia's future role in the U.S. market?


With all the excitement being built up around the World Avocado Congress in Medellin this week, I thought I would put together a piece on what the USDA data can so far tell us about the Colombian avocados, and what implications they could have for the future of the U.S. market.

This first thing to mention when looking at the USDA data from Colombia is that it is a nascent origin. It still has a long way to go before the U.S. becomes an important destination for the country. According to UN Comtrade, last year Colombia exported about 30m kilos of avocados in total, of which a negligible volume went to the U.S.

While this year saw in an impressive amount of growth, the volumes are still only a fraction of the country’s export capacity. The first bits and pieces of data that are trickling in, however, are beginning to tell an interesting story.

The data that we have so far received shows an important spike in volumes from Colombia in June. Conveniently, this is the month with the highest average prices so far this year.

Historical Hass Avocado Volumes from Colombia


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

Taking a longer-term view of the market, June is an opportune time to be in the market. This is because it is also the point of the year that Mexico has the hardest time supplying. Therefore, there is a window of opportunity to any origin that is able to have a presence during this time.

Historical Hass Avocado Volumes from Mexico


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

California has traditionally reigned supreme during this time frame, more recently joined by Peru. June through October has also typically been the time of year that has seen the most amount of volatility due to lack of supply. Depending on the production costs Colombia can offer, they could grow to become a great complement to the already-present suppliers and a stabilizing force for the market.

Hass Avocado Volumes by Origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

All of this said, it is still too early to tell what role Colombia will ultimately have. Complementing our analysis with the UN Comtrade data set again, we can see that although Colombia has been exporting year round, traditionally the majority of its exports have been in the Northern Hemisphere winter months. This would put it in direct competition with Mexico and make for a considerably more difficult time to enter the U.S. market.

This leads this analyst to suspect that Colombia will diversify its export strategy, planting to target the summer months for the U.S. market, while maintaining their exports to Europe in the winter months - a market Mexico has a much harder time serving.

Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on September 26, 2019 (Link)

Popular posts from this blog

Agronometrics in Charts: Demand for berries skyrockets in 2021

This time for the ‘In Charts’ series we will give an update as to how the average prices of berries have been behaving. Specifically, we will look at the prices of blueberries, raspberries, strawberries, and blackberries in the United States market and compare them with previous seasons. An increase in demand, brought on by the tendency to consume “superfoods” such as berries during the Covid-19 pandemic, seem to have pushed prices up despite the fact that volumes imported by the United States have been similar or higher than those of previous years. Let's look at each particular case: Blueberries Blueberry prices experienced a significant increase from week 3 of 2021, showing the highest prices of the last 5 seasons for the same date. If we observe the following chart, we can see that, for week 7 of 2021, the average price of conventional blueberries was $7.60 per kilo. This is 24 percent higher than in 2020 when the average price was $6.14 per kilo. Volumes for blueberr

Peru's blueberry oversupply takes its toll on export price

Overview of the Peruvian blueberry season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.   Original published in FreshPlaza.com   on November 25, 2020  This year's Peruvian blueberry season began in June with the export of 1,010 tons worth 5 million dollars. These figures represented a 25% increase in volume and a 77% increase in value over the same month of 2019. The lower production in the northern hemisphere due to weather problems allowed producers to achieve attractive prices of $ 5.15 per kilogram in June. Volume (in Kg) of blueberry from PerĂº in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) The good reception of Peruvian blueberries and the increase in prices encouraged exports during July, a month in which the country shipped 4,808 tons (+ 108%) for 26 million dollars (+ 102%). In this month, the increase in the Peruvian supply generated a slight 3% fall in the typical prices of the month,

Agronometrics in Charts: Berry prices in the U.S. market

This week we're going to check out how prices of blueberries, raspberries, strawberries and blackberries have been behaving in the U.S. market compared to previous seasons. Blueberries Let's start with blueberries, which over recent weeks have seen similar prices to 2019, although they have improved somewhat over the last two weeks. Looking at the chart below, we can see that in week 42, the average price of conventional blueberries was US$9.07 per kilo, which is 8% higher than in 2019. Volumes are coming from Mexico and Peru. Prices of non-organic blueberries in the U.S. market (USD per kilo) Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) Raspberries Raspberries meanwhile have throughout this year experience sharp peaks and valleys, although in recent weeks prices have tended to stabilize. As can be seen in the chart below, in week 42 prices were US$8.39 per kilo, which is 18% up on 2019. The U.S