Skip to main content

Avocados in Charts: What will be Colombia's future role in the U.S. market?


With all the excitement being built up around the World Avocado Congress in Medellin this week, I thought I would put together a piece on what the USDA data can so far tell us about the Colombian avocados, and what implications they could have for the future of the U.S. market.

This first thing to mention when looking at the USDA data from Colombia is that it is a nascent origin. It still has a long way to go before the U.S. becomes an important destination for the country. According to UN Comtrade, last year Colombia exported about 30m kilos of avocados in total, of which a negligible volume went to the U.S.

While this year saw in an impressive amount of growth, the volumes are still only a fraction of the country’s export capacity. The first bits and pieces of data that are trickling in, however, are beginning to tell an interesting story.

The data that we have so far received shows an important spike in volumes from Colombia in June. Conveniently, this is the month with the highest average prices so far this year.

Historical Hass Avocado Volumes from Colombia


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

Taking a longer-term view of the market, June is an opportune time to be in the market. This is because it is also the point of the year that Mexico has the hardest time supplying. Therefore, there is a window of opportunity to any origin that is able to have a presence during this time.

Historical Hass Avocado Volumes from Mexico


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

California has traditionally reigned supreme during this time frame, more recently joined by Peru. June through October has also typically been the time of year that has seen the most amount of volatility due to lack of supply. Depending on the production costs Colombia can offer, they could grow to become a great complement to the already-present suppliers and a stabilizing force for the market.

Hass Avocado Volumes by Origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

All of this said, it is still too early to tell what role Colombia will ultimately have. Complementing our analysis with the UN Comtrade data set again, we can see that although Colombia has been exporting year round, traditionally the majority of its exports have been in the Northern Hemisphere winter months. This would put it in direct competition with Mexico and make for a considerably more difficult time to enter the U.S. market.

This leads this analyst to suspect that Colombia will diversify its export strategy, planting to target the summer months for the U.S. market, while maintaining their exports to Europe in the winter months - a market Mexico has a much harder time serving.

Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on September 26, 2019 (Link)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …

Apples in Charts: Honeycrisp, the queen of the U.S. market

Apples are a high-volume fruit commodity which growers need to produce very efficiently in order to be profitable, and the U.S. is no exception to this rule.

Apples from numerous origins are sold in the U.S. market, which is supplied principally by fruit from Washington State, as can be seen in the chart below.

Average historic arrival volumes of apples in the U.S. market, by origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Average historic apple prices in the U.S. market have oscillated between around US$1.00 and US$1.75 per kilo over the last decade.

Historic weekly prices (USD/KG) of apples in the U.S. market


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
But in the panorama of apples in the U.S., there is one variety that has stood out from the others – Honeycrisp. This queen of the U.S. apple market has great growth potential and excellent prospects…

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in FreshPlaza.com on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …