Skip to main content

Pears in Charts: What will Washington's season look like?


The largest pear producer in the U.S. is Washington, the king state of pome fruit. The chart below illustrates what the season looks like, bringing to life the last 12 months of volumes and prices.

The Washington pear season runs from August to July in a classic distribution with relatively stable prices that dip as the season evolves. They range from $28.91 for a ⅘ bushel cartons in August to a low of $21.74 in April last year.

Washington Pears Non-Organic Prices and Volumes


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

As we just begin to wrap up last season, we can see Washington’s growth has been impressive. Offering U.S. consumers an increase of 15%, or 31 million kilos, more fruit than they had sent the previous season.

Historic Washington Non-Organic Pear Volumes


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

If we look at the difference in volume between the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons - especially after September, when Washington and Oregon dominate the market - we can see a relationship emerge that is very similar to what we saw in prices.

The laws of supply and demand being alive and well in pears, this way of looking at the data gives us an idea of why prices were lower than the previous season and offers a rough idea of what we might expect things to go in the upcoming season.

Historic Washington Non-Organic Pear Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

Favorable sizing has increased the volume forecast for pears out of the Northwest to similar levels as we saw last year (U.S.: Northwest pear crop forecasts rises amid large sizings). As such, it looks like we may see similar prices to last years as well.

This doesn't mean that this season will be a mirror image of last year; there are other factors that this overview of the market data does not take into account. But the distribution of the volumes as the season progresses is very important. We are already seeing that California’s season is running two to three weeks late; and recently Washington has also dipped below last year, presumably also because of a delay.

If the volume forecasts are to hold true, this may mean that volumes are more concentrated. This could mean price movements at different times than we saw last year and possibly more volatility.

Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on August 27, 2019 (Link)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Apples in Charts: Honeycrisp, the queen of the U.S. market

Apples are a high-volume fruit commodity which growers need to produce very efficiently in order to be profitable, and the U.S. is no exception to this rule.

Apples from numerous origins are sold in the U.S. market, which is supplied principally by fruit from Washington State, as can be seen in the chart below.

Average historic arrival volumes of apples in the U.S. market, by origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Average historic apple prices in the U.S. market have oscillated between around US$1.00 and US$1.75 per kilo over the last decade.

Historic weekly prices (USD/KG) of apples in the U.S. market


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
But in the panorama of apples in the U.S., there is one variety that has stood out from the others – Honeycrisp. This queen of the U.S. apple market has great growth potential and excellent prospects…

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …

Fruit in Charts: The winners and losers of 2018 (Part 3 of 3)

This article is the culmination of two previous posts that explored which commodities grew the most and the least through prices and volumes in both 2018 and over the last eight years. You can catch up on those previous articles with the following links:
The Winners and Losers of 2018 (Part 1 of 3)
The Winners and Losers of 2018 (Part 2 of 3)

In the process of writing the previous two articles, we saw that many of the commodities that had the highest prices also had the lowest volumes, and vice-versa. This begs the question, where are the best opportunities in this industry, where is growth and how do we define it? So in this article we will look at creating an index that combines the two factors and see if it can shed some light on this.

One of the most contentious commodities of 2018 was avocados, which saw the biggest drop in average yearly price compared with all other commodities we track. Avocados also saw one of the largest increases in volume of any commodity that we track. In …