Skip to main content

Pears in Charts: What will Washington's season look like?

The largest pear producer in the U.S. is Washington, the king state of pome fruit. The chart below illustrates what the season looks like, bringing to life the last 12 months of volumes and prices.

The Washington pear season runs from August to July in a classic distribution with relatively stable prices that dip as the season evolves. They range from $28.91 for a ⅘ bushel cartons in August to a low of $21.74 in April last year.

Washington Pears Non-Organic Prices and Volumes

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

As we just begin to wrap up last season, we can see Washington’s growth has been impressive. Offering U.S. consumers an increase of 15%, or 31 million kilos, more fruit than they had sent the previous season.

Historic Washington Non-Organic Pear Volumes

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

If we look at the difference in volume between the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons - especially after September, when Washington and Oregon dominate the market - we can see a relationship emerge that is very similar to what we saw in prices.

The laws of supply and demand being alive and well in pears, this way of looking at the data gives us an idea of why prices were lower than the previous season and offers a rough idea of what we might expect things to go in the upcoming season.

Historic Washington Non-Organic Pear Prices

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

Favorable sizing has increased the volume forecast for pears out of the Northwest to similar levels as we saw last year (U.S.: Northwest pear crop forecasts rises amid large sizings). As such, it looks like we may see similar prices to last years as well.

This doesn't mean that this season will be a mirror image of last year; there are other factors that this overview of the market data does not take into account. But the distribution of the volumes as the season progresses is very important. We are already seeing that California’s season is running two to three weeks late; and recently Washington has also dipped below last year, presumably also because of a delay.

If the volume forecasts are to hold true, this may mean that volumes are more concentrated. This could mean price movements at different times than we saw last year and possibly more volatility.

Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in on August 27, 2019 (Link)


Popular posts from this blog

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.

Original published in on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …

Blueberry boom: Worldwide growth creates challenges for NW producers

Overview of the northwest blueberry season by Doug Krahmer of Berries Northwest, Cort Brazelton of Fall Creek Farm and Nursery, Kasey Cronquist of the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council and Mark Hurst of Hurst's Berry Farm, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.

Original published in on July 30, 2020

ALBANY, Ore. — On a seasonably warm July afternoon in the fertile Willamette Valley, Doug Krahmer stood between rows of organic blueberries and watched as a large mechanical harvester rolled slowly through the field, rattling bushes heavy with ripe fruit.

Measuring a little more than 15 feet tall, 11 feet wide and weighing 7 tons, the harvester seemingly floated in the distance over neat rows while fiberglass rods, or “fingers,” shook the berries onto a conveyor belt that swooped them to the upper deck and into plastic crates.

From there, the crates were loaded into refrigerated trucks and driven from the farm north of Albany, Ore., to a packing shed east of Po…

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …