Skip to main content

Strawberries in Charts: Lower production brings prices back to normal


Last year we published a story about the largest strawberry crop ever seen and how it had greatly pushed down market prices, concerning many producers (Strawberries in Charts: The king of berries sees its biggest month ever).

This story expanded on a report from Rabobank that estimated a 36% shortfall in production for this summer. This decrease could have created a very dramatic change in market conditions (Strawberries in Charts: Expected California shortage, why aren’t last two months of high prices a model?).

So after so much speculation, it’s exciting to come full circle and see what actually came to fruition.

To bring the situation up to date, we offer the following chart, showing the strawberry volumes that have been produced by/shipped to the U.S.

Immediately noticeable is the dramatic difference in volume that was recorded in May this year, an 18% drop in volume compared to the same period last year.

Strawberry volumes in the U.S. market


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

Thanks to the laws of supply and demand, this big correction in volumes accounts for an increase in prices. The graph below is in weekly resolution to show the effect the smaller volumes in May had when they actually arrived on store shelves two weeks later.

Historic strawberry price, non organic


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

Considering the data, we can appreciate the quick jump in pricing that began during week 20 – on average the highest prices we have seen in three of the last four weeks over their equivilants for the last four years.

Historic strawberry price, non organic


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)


As a sign that could be seen as encouraging for the industry, the volumes we saw this year are the second highest for May that we have seen in the last four years.

So maybe the massive volume that the industry sent last year served as a good marketing tool, getting more fruit into the hands of more people and raising the appetite for strawberries throughout the country. This could have potentially allowed producers to fetch the high prices that we are seeing today.

Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on June 25, 2019 (Link)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in FreshPlaza.com on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …

Price Alerts! are here for all

As we bring price alerts to Agronometrics we thought we would pen a piece on our thinking behind the service as well as the methodology for it.

The idea for the Alerts arose from our conversations with the industry, where several people expressed high interest in knowing when there are important changes in the market prices that could affect their business.

This impetus created the Price Alerts! service, whereby we monitor daily average prices of every commodity on our platform, so that you don’t have to. As soon as the difference in price reaches a certain threshold you get an email alerting you of said price change. You can take a look at our sample report through this link (US Avocado Price Alert!)

In order not overflow our users with these email alerts, we have used some fancy statistical analysis and determined the required values so as to send some 12 alerts per year for each commodity. In the table below you will find the list of commodities along with their estimated limits t…