Skip to main content

Kiwifruit in Charts: With stocks at five-year high, how will prices fare for Chile?

The kiwifruit in a berry that originates in a large area of China, but especially in the Yangtze River Valley. Introduced into New Zealand in 1904, it has since been cultivated in numerous countries around the world. It was given the name ‘kiwi’ in New Zealand, possibly due to the similarity with the small, flightless bird native to the country. The fruit arrived in Chile in the 1980s, helping growers to diversify their offerings and improve profits.

Today the situation is quite different, and in this In Charts article we will look at what could be in store for the Chilean campaign in the U.S. market, and how it could compare to last year.

As we can see in the chart below, kiwifruit volumes in the U.S. in March 2019 were the highest in five years, which caused a slight price drop over the last few weeks.

Historic volume of kiwifruit (KG) in U.S. market

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

According to the Chilean Kiwifruit Committee, the country’s production could be around 5% lower year-on-year this season, with forecasts of around 175,000 metric tons (MT) compared to 184,000MT in 2018.

Historical volume of Chilean kiwifruit arrivals in the U.S. market

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

Given this forecast, it is possible that prices of Chilean kiwifruit will, in turn, be around 5% higher, unless other origins like New Zealand send much larger volumes than last year.

Sales prices of Northern Hemisphere kiwifruit have been lower than the previous season, while stocks of Italian fruit have been similar to last year.

With the Chilean harvests now fully underway, supply looks like it will be stable in the U.S. over the coming weeks – amid the high stocks of Italian fruit together with Greek stocks – and this will likely keep prices below last year’s levels. The chart below shows the historic development of prices throughout the year.

Historic reported prices (USA) of kiwifruit in the U.S.

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

As we can see from the following chart, Chile’s biggest competition comes from Italian and Greek kiwifruit stocks in the beginning stage of its season and New Zealand during its season.

Volume of kiwifruit arrivals in the U.S. (KG), per origin

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)

In summary, we are seeing a stable North American market, with prices to date lower than last season, and a stable supply of Greek and Italian kiwifruit. Prices will likely not rise until the end of the Italian season and will be heavily dependent on how supplies from New Zealand turn out.

Written by: Cristian Crespo
Original published in on April 23, 2019 (Link)


Popular posts from this blog

Fruit in Charts: The winners and losers of 2018 (Part 3 of 3)

This article is the culmination of two previous posts that explored which commodities grew the most and the least through prices and volumes in both 2018 and over the last eight years. You can catch up on those previous articles with the following links:
The Winners and Losers of 2018 (Part 1 of 3)
The Winners and Losers of 2018 (Part 2 of 3)

In the process of writing the previous two articles, we saw that many of the commodities that had the highest prices also had the lowest volumes, and vice-versa. This begs the question, where are the best opportunities in this industry, where is growth and how do we define it? So in this article we will look at creating an index that combines the two factors and see if it can shed some light on this.

One of the most contentious commodities of 2018 was avocados, which saw the biggest drop in average yearly price compared with all other commodities we track. Avocados also saw one of the largest increases in volume of any commodity that we track. In …

Fruit in Charts: The winners and losers of 2018 (Part 2 of 3)

Here is part two of three looking at the winners and losers of 2018. The previous article was based on pricing information made available by the USDA market data, and here we will look at the volume data.

The USDA’s volume data is one of the most complete representations of a market available everywhere – not only considering imports to the U.S., but national production to a large extent as well. In 2018 we also saw a big improvement to the data set, which now offers more complete information for several commodities (mostly citrus), which used to only partially include U.S. production. Average Yearly Volumes by Commodity (Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here
In the table below we can see the ranking of commodities by percentage of growth, which offers some good insights when considering the commercialization of the fruit the data set is trying to represent. By far the biggest increase in volume is for lemons and or…

Pears in Charts: Recent pricing pushed below previous years’ levels

Taking a look at the pear markets, the first thing that struck me when I began researching this dataset is that the market appears to be in decline, which I haven't found to be very common among the different commodities we work with. From the available data it seems that 2015 was pears’ best year, after which volumes began to decrease, dropping by almost one fourth since their high point of 2012.

Initially, the drop in volume coincided with increases in pricing, but that trend has since tapered off, seeing both a drop in price and volume over the last two years. This tells me that the demand for pears is waning. At the same, time other fruits are seeing growth, so it appears that consumers are choosing to spend their dollars on other products, which has been eating into pears’ market share within the produce aisle. I don’t have any objective data on what products are taking market share from pears, but any comments or opinions on the subject would be more than welcome.

Pear Non O…