Skip to main content

Grapes in Charts - Mexico helps makes America grape again

A rapid glance at the chart below illustrates how U.S. shipments for table grapes - of all varieties - are essentially made up by five origins: Chile, Mexico, Peru, and California (Central + Southern). Each of which essentially drives the bulk of supply during their respective seasons.

Grapes, Non-Organic, Historic Weekly Shipments

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

A dive into 2018 data reveals that Chile was the top foreign supplier of grapes to the U.S., accounting for roughly 64.6% of total import volume. In second place we see Mexico with 25.2%, followed distantly in third by Peru at 9.3%.

Today, we find ourselves at a point where Chile’s season is going to significantly wind down, and Mexico’s harvests will soon start hitting the markets. The issue is how significant will this time gap be?

Additionally, when we listen to what is being said about volumes, we see the discussion takes an even more interesting turn.

As explained in detail on last week’s article entitled “Massive Mexican table grape crop on the cards”, expected shipments are said to be on track to approach 2017’s figures. This is attributed in some measure to the grape producers’ association of Mexican State of Sonora (bordering Arizona), which during its first-ever summit hosted in the U.S. spoke some eyebrow-raising volumes.

The final total export tally from Sonora for 2018 was 16.37 million 19-pound boxes. In contrast, the association foresees some 22 million boxes destined for crop exports this year, which would represent 25% increment.

Origin: Mexico, Grapes, Non Organic, Historic Weekly Shipments

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Given the high number of varieties, a quick breakdown of grapes originating from Mexico is warranted. Out of the 18 different grape varieties monitored by the United States Department of Agriculture, we can identify and isolate the six main varieties originating from Mexico which are:

BLACK: Summer Royal | RED: Red Globe, Flame Seedless | WHITE: White Seedless, Sugarone, Perlette.

Origin: Mexico, Grapes, Non-Organic, 6 top varieties, 2018 Weekly

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

On the other hand, Direct Source Marketing mentions how cooler temperatures throughout the table grape growing regions of Mexico are behind the expectations of a 10 to 14-day delay in harvest schedules. This hints at the possibility of rather high spot prices during April and May, as the market looks to stretch out Chilean supplies until it starts raining grapes from Mexico. Recall that around 70% of the Mexican volumes are shipped during June and early July.

Over the past 6 weeks, price behavior indicate a slight downward trend, whereby average prices slid from US$23.82 down to US$19.97, as Chilean shipments increased from 21.33M to 26.75M for this time period.

Grapes, Non-Organic, by Variety, Historic Daily Prices

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Notwithstanding, when we zoom out and look at historic price fluctuations over the past four years, we observe how we are in the middle of the price saddle, and a rather steep price climb is bound to begin at any moment now.

Grapes, Non Organic, Historic Weekly Prices

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

So as the U.S. market is set to start its seasonal price climb at any instant, and with its southern neighbor heralding a massive amount of product over the horizon, we ought to be paying very close attention to supply, as well as effective availability. Volatile spikes seem to on the menu because as the saying goes: timing is everything. But then again, people also say there is never a perfect time for anything…

Written by: Luis Aragon
Original published in on April 02, 2019 (Link)


Popular posts from this blog

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.

Original published in on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …

Blueberry boom: Worldwide growth creates challenges for NW producers

Overview of the northwest blueberry season by Doug Krahmer of Berries Northwest, Cort Brazelton of Fall Creek Farm and Nursery, Kasey Cronquist of the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council and Mark Hurst of Hurst's Berry Farm, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.

Original published in on July 30, 2020

ALBANY, Ore. — On a seasonably warm July afternoon in the fertile Willamette Valley, Doug Krahmer stood between rows of organic blueberries and watched as a large mechanical harvester rolled slowly through the field, rattling bushes heavy with ripe fruit.

Measuring a little more than 15 feet tall, 11 feet wide and weighing 7 tons, the harvester seemingly floated in the distance over neat rows while fiberglass rods, or “fingers,” shook the berries onto a conveyor belt that swooped them to the upper deck and into plastic crates.

From there, the crates were loaded into refrigerated trucks and driven from the farm north of Albany, Ore., to a packing shed east of Po…

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …