Skip to main content

Clementines in Charts - It's almost ClemenTime for Chile


Clementines are among the author’s favorite Spring fruits because they check all the boxes: a goldilocks size (not too large, not too small), easy to carry, easier to peel -its segments pull out with more ease than Legos- all whilst providing a very pleasing sweet flavor without the high acidity that often accompanies citrus. And as a bonus: because it's a hybrid, if cultivated properly it grows with no seeds. The name Clementine comes from the 19th century French missionary named Marie-Clément Rodierem, who is believed to be the first origin for this hybrid citrus while working at an orphanage in Algeria.

Today, and when we give a bird’s eye view at shipments to-and-within the US Market, we observe how Clementines experience a two-peaks-two valleys type of landscape in any given year.

Clementines, Non-Organic, Monthly Shipments for previous 4 years


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Whatismore, April is one of the three months with the least amount of Clementines’ movement (with September & October being the other two). Thus, in the present month we find ourselves on the low-point created by the end of the Morrocan season and the very beginning of Chile’s. These two countries are incidentally, the two main sources,providing an outstanding 27% and 55% of the total fruit on the market in 2018, respectively.

Table 1, Clementines, Non Organic, Annual US Shipments

Year      Global Volume (KG) Global Share Chile Volume (KG) Chile Share Morocco Volume (KG) Morocco Share
2014 134,850,744 100.0% 24,653,160 18.3% 41,726,664 30.9%
2015 111,132,000 100.0% 30,327,696 27.3% 43,423,128 39.1%
2016 95,823,000 100.0% 42,012,432 43.8% 20,026,440 20.9%
2017 113,576,904 100.0% 38,029,824 33.5% 22,371,552 19.7%
2018 112,665,168 100.0% 61,948,152 55.0% 29,860,488 26.5%
YDT 23,178,960 100.0% 0 0.0% 20,529,936 88.6%

Here’s a closer look of the aforementioned period during 2018, where we identify Morocco's last shipment on the week of 8-APR and Chile’s first shipment on the week of 29-APR.

Clementines, Non-Organic, Weekly Shipments Spring 2018


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

So with current the gap in supply, and the expected arrival of significant volumes from Chile -as well as potentially Peru as detailed in a recent FreshFruitPortal.com article: Peru expecting 8% uptick in citrus exports- it is only wise to review Clementines’ price behaviours to help us better anticipate upcoming price trends.

Clementines, Non-Organic, Historic Weekly Prices per KG


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

A glance at historical price trends, shows we could very well expect prices to start off around-or-above USD $2.50/KG levels sometime over the next two weeks and stay in that neighborhood until mid-June (weeks 24 & 25) after which, a steady price drop is to follow until the Southern Hemisphere’s season ends around late August.

And yet, If we step further back and look at the even bigger picture, we can see that US Annual Sales for Clementines are stagnating, if not slightly decreasing. The assumption is that Chile’s skyrocketing production (go back and have another look at the Table 1: 24M KG. in 2014, 42M KG in 2016, 61M KG in 2018) could be driving average selling prices down.

Table 2, Clementines, Non Organic, Estimated Annual Sales

Year Est SALES (in USD) AVERAGE ANNUAL PRICE per KG
2014 $323,641,786 2.40
2015 $245,601,720 2.21
2016 $177,272,550 1.85
2017 $232,832,653 2.05
2018 $221,950,381 1.97

Notwithstanding the subtle downward tendency of annual prices for Clementines in the US market, and thanks to reversed Seasons, Chile and Peru still benefit from higher prices than Morocco & Spain; which fall in the (USD/KG) $1.30 to $1.90 range.

Thus, with its soaring annual production and US prices partly lagging, it is now wonder that Chile’s industry is seeking to conquer new markets, particularly in East Asia and Latin America.


Written by: Luis Aragon
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on April 16, 2019 (Link)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Blueberry boom: Worldwide growth creates challenges for NW producers

Overview of the northwest blueberry season by Doug Krahmer of Berries Northwest, Cort Brazelton of Fall Creek Farm and Nursery, Kasey Cronquist of the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council and Mark Hurst of Hurst's Berry Farm, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published in www.capitalpress.com  on July 30, 2020 ALBANY, Ore. — On a seasonably warm July afternoon in the fertile Willamette Valley, Doug Krahmer stood between rows of organic blueberries and watched as a large mechanical harvester rolled slowly through the field, rattling bushes heavy with ripe fruit. Measuring a little more than 15 feet tall, 11 feet wide and weighing 7 tons, the harvester seemingly floated in the distance over neat rows while fiberglass rods, or “fingers,” shook the berries onto a conveyor belt that swooped them to the upper deck and into plastic crates. From there, the crates were loaded into refrigerated trucks and driven from the farm north of Albany, Ore., to a packing shed ea

Agronometrics in Charts: Demand for berries skyrockets in 2021

This time for the ‘In Charts’ series we will give an update as to how the average prices of berries have been behaving. Specifically, we will look at the prices of blueberries, raspberries, strawberries, and blackberries in the United States market and compare them with previous seasons. An increase in demand, brought on by the tendency to consume “superfoods” such as berries during the Covid-19 pandemic, seem to have pushed prices up despite the fact that volumes imported by the United States have been similar or higher than those of previous years. Let's look at each particular case: Blueberries Blueberry prices experienced a significant increase from week 3 of 2021, showing the highest prices of the last 5 seasons for the same date. If we observe the following chart, we can see that, for week 7 of 2021, the average price of conventional blueberries was $7.60 per kilo. This is 24 percent higher than in 2020 when the average price was $6.14 per kilo. Volumes for blueberr

Peru's blueberry oversupply takes its toll on export price

Overview of the Peruvian blueberry season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.   Original published in FreshPlaza.com   on November 25, 2020  This year's Peruvian blueberry season began in June with the export of 1,010 tons worth 5 million dollars. These figures represented a 25% increase in volume and a 77% increase in value over the same month of 2019. The lower production in the northern hemisphere due to weather problems allowed producers to achieve attractive prices of $ 5.15 per kilogram in June. Volume (in Kg) of blueberry from Perú in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) The good reception of Peruvian blueberries and the increase in prices encouraged exports during July, a month in which the country shipped 4,808 tons (+ 108%) for 26 million dollars (+ 102%). In this month, the increase in the Peruvian supply generated a slight 3% fall in the typical prices of the month,