Skip to main content

Apples in Charts - With prices are at a four year high, how will a 5% drop in Chiles crop play out?


Over the last three weeks, apple prices on the spot market reached the highest we have seen in the last four years, surpassing the previous record holder which was 2016.

Historic Apple Prices, Non-Organic, Tray Pack


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

The increase in pricing is arguably the result of a 13% decrease in Washington's production, observed from October through February. This has left the markets with volumes very reminiscent of 2016.

Historic Apple Volumes, Non-Organic


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

This bigger picture looking at the markets brings us to the Chilean season, which is already underway. Taking Chile into context it is important to keep in mind that in 2018 the country represented only 3% of the U.S. market, so it is much more susceptible to these macro changes than other origins. Another factor to keep in mind is that Chile currently has more free trade agreements than any country in the world, which its exporters have put to good use developing an extensive list of clients all over the globe, allowing them to seek the best opportunities for their fruit.

So given the current market conditions, I think that the 5% drop expected for Chile’s production (Mixed picture for Southern Hemisphere pome fruit production) will not affect the volumes that should be sent to the U.S. What I think will be a more likely scenario is that exporters will redirect their volumes from other destinations, increasing the exports to the U.S. compared to last year.

Historic Apple Volumes from Chile, Non-Organic


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Even with my own prediction of growth expected, I would not be surprised to see prices staying steadily at around 2016 levels making for a very good apple season for our friends in Chile.

Historic Apple Prices from Chile, Non-Organic, Tray Pack


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

As a useful tool for readers to gauge how the markets are currently evolving, here is the updated weekly pricing by fruit size.

Apple Price, Gala, Non-Organic, Tray Pack by Size


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Apple Price, Gala, Non-Organic, Tray Pack by Size (Week 11)

Sizes Price Reported
Average $24.28
64s $25.25
72s $26.25
80s $27.00
88s $26.00
100s $24.40
113s $21.75
125s $21.40
138s $23.00
163s $16.75

Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on March 19, 2019 (Link)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …

Apples in Charts: Honeycrisp, the queen of the U.S. market

Apples are a high-volume fruit commodity which growers need to produce very efficiently in order to be profitable, and the U.S. is no exception to this rule.

Apples from numerous origins are sold in the U.S. market, which is supplied principally by fruit from Washington State, as can be seen in the chart below.

Average historic arrival volumes of apples in the U.S. market, by origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Average historic apple prices in the U.S. market have oscillated between around US$1.00 and US$1.75 per kilo over the last decade.

Historic weekly prices (USD/KG) of apples in the U.S. market


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
But in the panorama of apples in the U.S., there is one variety that has stood out from the others – Honeycrisp. This queen of the U.S. apple market has great growth potential and excellent prospects…

Fruit in Charts: The winners and losers of 2018 (Part 3 of 3)

This article is the culmination of two previous posts that explored which commodities grew the most and the least through prices and volumes in both 2018 and over the last eight years. You can catch up on those previous articles with the following links:
The Winners and Losers of 2018 (Part 1 of 3)
The Winners and Losers of 2018 (Part 2 of 3)

In the process of writing the previous two articles, we saw that many of the commodities that had the highest prices also had the lowest volumes, and vice-versa. This begs the question, where are the best opportunities in this industry, where is growth and how do we define it? So in this article we will look at creating an index that combines the two factors and see if it can shed some light on this.

One of the most contentious commodities of 2018 was avocados, which saw the biggest drop in average yearly price compared with all other commodities we track. Avocados also saw one of the largest increases in volume of any commodity that we track. In …