Skip to main content

Mangoes in Charts: With supply deficits expected over coming weeks, could prices double?


With the industry reporting deficits in volume compared with last year (Peruvian mango exports to drop by more than a third, says industry rep and Mexican mango season to get underway with Ataulfo variety), here we take a look at the industry data available to gain insights over what might be in store.

The Virtual Graphs tool on the Mango Boards website does a great job of visualising the associations shipping projections against last years arrivals. Through the tool, which might look familiar given that it was built by Agronometrics, we can see a glaring hole in supply expected to span about eight weeks.

When looking at this data keep in mind that the shipping projections are volumes leaving their respective origins. As such there will be a delay before they arrive in the US.

US Mango Board Virtual Graphs
(Source: US Mango Board Virtual Graphs)

Looking at movements from last year, we can see that the producing regions most affected will be Peru and Mexico.

Mango Volumes by Origin 2018
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

To gain a bit of perspective I went back in time to see if there was a year that had a similar production level during this time period. However, the last four years haven't had any events that are as dramatic as what are being expected, leaving us with 2015 as the closest example of a year with lower shipments.

                                              Mango Historic Weekly Volumes
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

With prices this year already coming in a full dollar over last, the question is how far could they yet go? 2015 data that is available is pretty interesting, hinting at the possibility of prices even being able to double. Although the mechanics of the how pricing is set are more complex than I can represent with this data, should the forecasts predicted actually play out, I wouldn't be surprised if prices even surpassed what we saw in 2015.

                                            Mango Historic Weekly Prices
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

As a useful tool for readers to gauge how the markets are currently evolving, we offer below weekly pricing by fruit size.

                                         Mango Prices by Size, Variety Kent
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

                                         Mango Prices by Size, Variety Kent (Week 5)
Sizes
Price Reported
Average
$6.99
6s
$6.97
7s
$6.98
8s
$6.98
9s
$6.98
10s
$6.98
12s
$7.06

Written by: Colin Fain

Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on February 05, 2019 (Link)

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in FreshPlaza.com on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …

Price Alerts! are here for all

As we bring price alerts to Agronometrics we thought we would pen a piece on our thinking behind the service as well as the methodology for it.

The idea for the Alerts arose from our conversations with the industry, where several people expressed high interest in knowing when there are important changes in the market prices that could affect their business.

This impetus created the Price Alerts! service, whereby we monitor daily average prices of every commodity on our platform, so that you don’t have to. As soon as the difference in price reaches a certain threshold you get an email alerting you of said price change. You can take a look at our sample report through this link (US Avocado Price Alert!)

In order not overflow our users with these email alerts, we have used some fancy statistical analysis and determined the required values so as to send some 12 alerts per year for each commodity. In the table below you will find the list of commodities along with their estimated limits t…