Skip to main content

Grapes in Charts: Record California volumes reverse Chilean pricing trends


During a very atypical season, table grape volumes have fallen dramatically over the last couple few weeks to usher in unusually high prices. In this article I’ll look at how Chile is developing, which will serve as a complement to my previous piece on the subject - Grapes in Charts: How will Chile’s expected crop affect U.S. market against backdrop of low prices?

                Grape Prices and Volumes
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Although it is normal for prices to increase as volumes fall, what is strikingly abnormal about this season so far is how the pricing trends have gone completely against the normal trends, steadily rising throughout the Chilean Season as opposed to entering high and slowly falling as the season progresses.

                                              Historic Grape Prices from Chile
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

The cause of this backwardness in the market is an unusually strong production from California, whose market options were also limited by the tariffs imposed by China. As a consequence the U.S. market was flooded with fruit, building up inventories that still needed to be cleared even when Chile’s crop began arriving.

                                               Historic Grape Volumes
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

The resulting prices were the lowest we have seen in the last five years from week 39 right the way through week 2.

                                               Historic Grape Prices

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Considering that Chile is expected to ship a similar amount to last year, I think that the outlook I published in the last article still holds, and we should see the market shift back to how it normally operates over the next couple of weeks.

On a separate note, as a useful tool for readers to gauge how the markets are currently evolving, we offer weekly pricing by fruit size.

                                                 Red Seedless, Non-Organic, Prices by Size
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

                                         Red Seedless, Non-Organic, Prices by Size (Week 7)
Sizes
Price Reported
Average
$25.80
med
$21.00
med-large
$26.60
large
$25.80
extra-large
$27.80

Written by: Colin Fain

Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on February 19, 2019 (Link)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Apples in Charts: Honeycrisp, the queen of the U.S. market

Apples are a high-volume fruit commodity which growers need to produce very efficiently in order to be profitable, and the U.S. is no exception to this rule.

Apples from numerous origins are sold in the U.S. market, which is supplied principally by fruit from Washington State, as can be seen in the chart below.

Average historic arrival volumes of apples in the U.S. market, by origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Average historic apple prices in the U.S. market have oscillated between around US$1.00 and US$1.75 per kilo over the last decade.

Historic weekly prices (USD/KG) of apples in the U.S. market


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
But in the panorama of apples in the U.S., there is one variety that has stood out from the others – Honeycrisp. This queen of the U.S. apple market has great growth potential and excellent prospects…

Fruit in Charts: The winners and losers of 2018 (Part 3 of 3)

This article is the culmination of two previous posts that explored which commodities grew the most and the least through prices and volumes in both 2018 and over the last eight years. You can catch up on those previous articles with the following links:
The Winners and Losers of 2018 (Part 1 of 3)
The Winners and Losers of 2018 (Part 2 of 3)

In the process of writing the previous two articles, we saw that many of the commodities that had the highest prices also had the lowest volumes, and vice-versa. This begs the question, where are the best opportunities in this industry, where is growth and how do we define it? So in this article we will look at creating an index that combines the two factors and see if it can shed some light on this.

One of the most contentious commodities of 2018 was avocados, which saw the biggest drop in average yearly price compared with all other commodities we track. Avocados also saw one of the largest increases in volume of any commodity that we track. In …

Fruit in Charts: The winners and losers of 2018 (Part 2 of 3)

Here is part two of three looking at the winners and losers of 2018. The previous article was based on pricing information made available by the USDA market data, and here we will look at the volume data.

The USDA’s volume data is one of the most complete representations of a market available everywhere – not only considering imports to the U.S., but national production to a large extent as well. In 2018 we also saw a big improvement to the data set, which now offers more complete information for several commodities (mostly citrus), which used to only partially include U.S. production. Average Yearly Volumes by Commodity (Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here
In the table below we can see the ranking of commodities by percentage of growth, which offers some good insights when considering the commercialization of the fruit the data set is trying to represent. By far the biggest increase in volume is for lemons and or…