Skip to main content

Grapes in Charts: Record California volumes reverse Chilean pricing trends


During a very atypical season, table grape volumes have fallen dramatically over the last couple few weeks to usher in unusually high prices. In this article I’ll look at how Chile is developing, which will serve as a complement to my previous piece on the subject - Grapes in Charts: How will Chile’s expected crop affect U.S. market against backdrop of low prices?

                Grape Prices and Volumes
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Although it is normal for prices to increase as volumes fall, what is strikingly abnormal about this season so far is how the pricing trends have gone completely against the normal trends, steadily rising throughout the Chilean Season as opposed to entering high and slowly falling as the season progresses.

                                              Historic Grape Prices from Chile
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

The cause of this backwardness in the market is an unusually strong production from California, whose market options were also limited by the tariffs imposed by China. As a consequence the U.S. market was flooded with fruit, building up inventories that still needed to be cleared even when Chile’s crop began arriving.

                                               Historic Grape Volumes
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

The resulting prices were the lowest we have seen in the last five years from week 39 right the way through week 2.

                                               Historic Grape Prices

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Considering that Chile is expected to ship a similar amount to last year, I think that the outlook I published in the last article still holds, and we should see the market shift back to how it normally operates over the next couple of weeks.

On a separate note, as a useful tool for readers to gauge how the markets are currently evolving, we offer weekly pricing by fruit size.

                                                 Red Seedless, Non-Organic, Prices by Size
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

                                         Red Seedless, Non-Organic, Prices by Size (Week 7)
Sizes
Price Reported
Average
$25.80
med
$21.00
med-large
$26.60
large
$25.80
extra-large
$27.80

Written by: Colin Fain

Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on February 19, 2019 (Link)

Popular posts from this blog

Agronometrics in Charts: Demand for berries skyrockets in 2021

This time for the ‘In Charts’ series we will give an update as to how the average prices of berries have been behaving. Specifically, we will look at the prices of blueberries, raspberries, strawberries, and blackberries in the United States market and compare them with previous seasons. An increase in demand, brought on by the tendency to consume “superfoods” such as berries during the Covid-19 pandemic, seem to have pushed prices up despite the fact that volumes imported by the United States have been similar or higher than those of previous years. Let's look at each particular case: Blueberries Blueberry prices experienced a significant increase from week 3 of 2021, showing the highest prices of the last 5 seasons for the same date. If we observe the following chart, we can see that, for week 7 of 2021, the average price of conventional blueberries was $7.60 per kilo. This is 24 percent higher than in 2020 when the average price was $6.14 per kilo. Volumes for blueberr

Peru's blueberry oversupply takes its toll on export price

Overview of the Peruvian blueberry season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.   Original published in FreshPlaza.com   on November 25, 2020  This year's Peruvian blueberry season began in June with the export of 1,010 tons worth 5 million dollars. These figures represented a 25% increase in volume and a 77% increase in value over the same month of 2019. The lower production in the northern hemisphere due to weather problems allowed producers to achieve attractive prices of $ 5.15 per kilogram in June. Volume (in Kg) of blueberry from Perú in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) The good reception of Peruvian blueberries and the increase in prices encouraged exports during July, a month in which the country shipped 4,808 tons (+ 108%) for 26 million dollars (+ 102%). In this month, the increase in the Peruvian supply generated a slight 3% fall in the typical prices of the month,

Tight raspberry volumes make for more “normal” pricing

Overview of the raspberry supply by Ben Escoe of Twin River Berries, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published in FreshPlaza.com   on May 12, 2021  “They’re starting to pick up, but it’s been tight--really tight,” says Ben Escoe of Twin River Berries in Portland, OR, noting this largely has to do with the weather conditions in Mexico. “It’s been cold and windy there which has caused damage in the fields and contributed to the low supply. Year over year, the volume is comparable or even better. But demand is high and forecast to actual supply has been lower.” Mexico grows raspberries for most of the year, stopping only for the rainy season which begins at the end of June or early July. Meanwhile California’s volume won’t really begin until the middle to the end of May. Volumes (in Kg) of raspberries from Mexico in the US Market​ Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) Higher berry deman