Skip to main content

Grapes in Charts: How will Chile’s expected crop affect U.S. market against backdrop of low prices?


Unseasonably low pricing in the U.S. table grape market has many in the industry on edge. Especially as expectations of high inventories threaten to have an impact on the seasons of Peru and Chile. So this week I want to look at the numbers and see what we can discern from the situation.

US Monthly Grape Shipping Point Historical Prices
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here*]

While the current prices are in fact the lowest average monthly price we have seen in our datasets for November, this is not without cause. After a huge harvest, this is also the most volume recorded for the month by the USDA that we make available in Agronometrics. Throw on top of that limited exports for fruit that might have otherwise been sent to China and the resulting situation is inevitable.

US Monthly Grape Historical Volumes (KG)
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here*]

I wrote about Peru in a previous article which can be seen here, so I’ll focus this segment on Chile.

Chile occupies a strategic spot in the U.S. market, counter-seasonal to California and bordered by Peru and Mexico, coming in right as prices begin to rise and supplying the U.S. with the bulk of their grapes during the winter months.

US 2017-18 Grape Volumes by Origin
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

The season typically follows a pretty established trend, starting out high before dipping in January, February and March to help move the bulk of the volume, and coming back up again in April as volumes drop and U.S. demand picks up with warmer weather.

US Volumes and Prices of Chilean Grapes (September 2015 – Present)
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Even considering damage from the massive hailstorm that Chile recently suffered, the Chilean Table Grape Committee is expecting volumes only 2% lower. It seems however that the hail is not the primary cause of the drop in volume, but a rejuvenation of the varieties. Some have argued that this change has been a long time coming – and with the prices that some of the newer varieties are fetching, it’s easy to see why.
US Shipping Point Prices from Chile by Variety 2017-18
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

So as we take into account smaller volumes from Chile, I think that the most likely scenario will be prices lower than they otherwise would be at the start of the season as we wait for volumes from California’s over-production to clear up. That said, there is clearly a preference for new fruit, as Peru’s prices have already been fetching a healthy premium against the outgoing California crop. Assuming the forecasts are accurate, I would expect for prices to be higher than what we were seeing last year for Chile, especially in February, March and April, where most of Chile’s volumes are concentrated.
US Shipping Point Prices by Origin
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]


Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on December 11, 2018 (Link)

*To view historics click on this icon in the table. In the historics report you can change viewing to reflect seasons that cross New Years.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …
Post a Comment
Read more

Apples in Charts: Honeycrisp, the queen of the U.S. market

Apples are a high-volume fruit commodity which growers need to produce very efficiently in order to be profitable, and the U.S. is no exception to this rule.

Apples from numerous origins are sold in the U.S. market, which is supplied principally by fruit from Washington State, as can be seen in the chart below.

Average historic arrival volumes of apples in the U.S. market, by origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Average historic apple prices in the U.S. market have oscillated between around US$1.00 and US$1.75 per kilo over the last decade.

Historic weekly prices (USD/KG) of apples in the U.S. market


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
But in the panorama of apples in the U.S., there is one variety that has stood out from the others – Honeycrisp. This queen of the U.S. apple market has great growth potential and excellent prospects…
Post a Comment
Read more

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in FreshPlaza.com on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …
Post a Comment
Read more