Skip to main content

Grapes in Charts: How will Chile’s expected crop affect U.S. market against backdrop of low prices?


Unseasonably low pricing in the U.S. table grape market has many in the industry on edge. Especially as expectations of high inventories threaten to have an impact on the seasons of Peru and Chile. So this week I want to look at the numbers and see what we can discern from the situation.

US Monthly Grape Shipping Point Historical Prices
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here*]

While the current prices are in fact the lowest average monthly price we have seen in our datasets for November, this is not without cause. After a huge harvest, this is also the most volume recorded for the month by the USDA that we make available in Agronometrics. Throw on top of that limited exports for fruit that might have otherwise been sent to China and the resulting situation is inevitable.

US Monthly Grape Historical Volumes (KG)
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here*]

I wrote about Peru in a previous article which can be seen here, so I’ll focus this segment on Chile.

Chile occupies a strategic spot in the U.S. market, counter-seasonal to California and bordered by Peru and Mexico, coming in right as prices begin to rise and supplying the U.S. with the bulk of their grapes during the winter months.

US 2017-18 Grape Volumes by Origin
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

The season typically follows a pretty established trend, starting out high before dipping in January, February and March to help move the bulk of the volume, and coming back up again in April as volumes drop and U.S. demand picks up with warmer weather.

US Volumes and Prices of Chilean Grapes (September 2015 – Present)
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Even considering damage from the massive hailstorm that Chile recently suffered, the Chilean Table Grape Committee is expecting volumes only 2% lower. It seems however that the hail is not the primary cause of the drop in volume, but a rejuvenation of the varieties. Some have argued that this change has been a long time coming – and with the prices that some of the newer varieties are fetching, it’s easy to see why.
US Shipping Point Prices from Chile by Variety 2017-18
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

So as we take into account smaller volumes from Chile, I think that the most likely scenario will be prices lower than they otherwise would be at the start of the season as we wait for volumes from California’s over-production to clear up. That said, there is clearly a preference for new fruit, as Peru’s prices have already been fetching a healthy premium against the outgoing California crop. Assuming the forecasts are accurate, I would expect for prices to be higher than what we were seeing last year for Chile, especially in February, March and April, where most of Chile’s volumes are concentrated.
US Shipping Point Prices by Origin
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]


Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on December 11, 2018 (Link)

*To view historics click on this icon in the table. In the historics report you can change viewing to reflect seasons that cross New Years.

Comments

  1. You have Shared great content here about grapes. I am glad to discover this post as I found lots of valuable data in your article. Thanks for sharing an article like this.
    sulphur dioxide grapes

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Blueberry boom: Worldwide growth creates challenges for NW producers

Overview of the northwest blueberry season by Doug Krahmer of Berries Northwest, Cort Brazelton of Fall Creek Farm and Nursery, Kasey Cronquist of the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council and Mark Hurst of Hurst's Berry Farm, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published in www.capitalpress.com  on July 30, 2020 ALBANY, Ore. — On a seasonably warm July afternoon in the fertile Willamette Valley, Doug Krahmer stood between rows of organic blueberries and watched as a large mechanical harvester rolled slowly through the field, rattling bushes heavy with ripe fruit. Measuring a little more than 15 feet tall, 11 feet wide and weighing 7 tons, the harvester seemingly floated in the distance over neat rows while fiberglass rods, or “fingers,” shook the berries onto a conveyor belt that swooped them to the upper deck and into plastic crates. From there, the crates were loaded into refrigerated trucks and driven from the farm north of Albany, Ore., to a packing shed ea

Agronometrics in Charts: Demand for berries skyrockets in 2021

This time for the ‘In Charts’ series we will give an update as to how the average prices of berries have been behaving. Specifically, we will look at the prices of blueberries, raspberries, strawberries, and blackberries in the United States market and compare them with previous seasons. An increase in demand, brought on by the tendency to consume “superfoods” such as berries during the Covid-19 pandemic, seem to have pushed prices up despite the fact that volumes imported by the United States have been similar or higher than those of previous years. Let's look at each particular case: Blueberries Blueberry prices experienced a significant increase from week 3 of 2021, showing the highest prices of the last 5 seasons for the same date. If we observe the following chart, we can see that, for week 7 of 2021, the average price of conventional blueberries was $7.60 per kilo. This is 24 percent higher than in 2020 when the average price was $6.14 per kilo. Volumes for blueberr

Peru's blueberry oversupply takes its toll on export price

Overview of the Peruvian blueberry season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.   Original published in FreshPlaza.com   on November 25, 2020  This year's Peruvian blueberry season began in June with the export of 1,010 tons worth 5 million dollars. These figures represented a 25% increase in volume and a 77% increase in value over the same month of 2019. The lower production in the northern hemisphere due to weather problems allowed producers to achieve attractive prices of $ 5.15 per kilogram in June. Volume (in Kg) of blueberry from Perú in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) The good reception of Peruvian blueberries and the increase in prices encouraged exports during July, a month in which the country shipped 4,808 tons (+ 108%) for 26 million dollars (+ 102%). In this month, the increase in the Peruvian supply generated a slight 3% fall in the typical prices of the month,