Skip to main content

Blueberries in Charts: Chile fetches high opening prices, but how might the season play out?


One of the best examples of the relationship between prices and volumes in fresh produce can be observed in blueberries, as demonstrated almost perfectly by the chart below. With prices in October closing out at the highest level we have seen since 2015, this article will explore what kind of scenario we might expect of Chile in the coming months.


US Blueberry Prices and Volumes
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Let’s set the scene a bit. Chile is nestled in a strategic spot, completely countercyclical to U.S. production. Until recently, it pretty much had the run on the market during the U.S. winter months, only really contending with Argentina in October and November before Florida starts up again in May. It’s only in the last five years that we have seen significant competition encroaching in, introducing Peru at the beginning of the season and Mexico right at the end.

US Blueberry Volumes by Origin
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Considering the relationship between price and volume we saw in the first chart, it can be argued that the filling of the windows of opportunity by Peru and Mexico have been making prices more stable. An example of this stability is the reduction in massive price spikes such as those experienced during the 2013-14 seasons, which used to be much more common.

Historic Monthly Blueberry Shipping Point Prices per Kilo
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here*]

Although all volumes that arrive on the market will have an effect on the price, the historic trends have for the most part held up. Chile’s season typically starts in November, with prices dropping as volumes increase, hitting about half of their initial value towards the end of the season in March, when quality wanes. In the last five years, however, the prices at the beginning and at the end of the season have remained stable, indicating increased demand which possibly didn’t exist before. Where other origins have complemented the bulk of Chile’s supplies, the market has seen a marked dip in prices, indicative of a more established demand curve dealing with unexpected concentrations in volume.

Historic Monthly Blueberry Shipping Point Prices per Kilo From Chile
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here*]

With the first shipments already arriving in the U.S. market, it will be very interesting to see how this season plays out. The first prices that the USDA is reporting are already unusually high; looking back they are actually the highest we have seen since 2010, where our datasets begin. There is also a notable difference between the prices for Chilean fruit and what we are seeing for Peru and Mexico, which typically aren’t so marked. In the last two years, Chile’s fruit often has taken a premium over Peru and Mexico, but nowhere near the US$6 per kilo that we are saw last week. The best explanation for this variance can typically be found in the quality of the fruit. Unfortunately, the USDA does not report on that parameter, so our only proxy is the origin, which at the very least lets us know of which point of the season the fruit is in.

Blueberry Shipping Point Prices per Kilo
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

With the Chilean Blueberry Committee forecasting a slight drop in production compared to last year, and prices already very high, I would expect a season of generous prices for Chile, at least over the next couple of weeks. The distribution of their production has a lot to do with this. As of yet, I haven’t seen very much consensus on the full effects of the hailstorm, also mentioned in the referenced article. If Chile’s production volumes see themselves very much more diminished, we might have very high prices indeed going forward.

Written by: Colin Fain
Original published in FreshFruitPortal.com on November 27 , 2018 (Link)

*To view historics click on this icon in the table. In the historics report you can change viewing to reflect seasons that cross New Years.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Avocados In Charts - Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 2018

Agronometrics has often spoken about what is to come and how the market could be affected. We hold a strong belief in being able to look at objective data can help navigate complicated scenarios. The recent spike in prices that avocados have seen is an example of one of these scenarios, catching many by surprise at a time of the year where we had never seen movements like this before. This can be seen in the chart below where the 2019 line has towered above all other prices since Sept. 2017 and every price recorded for June in the last five years.

Historic Hass Avocado Prices


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Comparing the volumes of this year to the last can offer some insight as to how these prices have come about. Considering the prices were almost flat last year, the volume data serves as a great benchmark to understand where customers expectations lie.

In this year’s data, an important oversupply can be …
Post a Comment
Read more

Apples in Charts: Honeycrisp, the queen of the U.S. market

Apples are a high-volume fruit commodity which growers need to produce very efficiently in order to be profitable, and the U.S. is no exception to this rule.

Apples from numerous origins are sold in the U.S. market, which is supplied principally by fruit from Washington State, as can be seen in the chart below.

Average historic arrival volumes of apples in the U.S. market, by origin


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Average historic apple prices in the U.S. market have oscillated between around US$1.00 and US$1.75 per kilo over the last decade.

Historic weekly prices (USD/KG) of apples in the U.S. market


(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
But in the panorama of apples in the U.S., there is one variety that has stood out from the others – Honeycrisp. This queen of the U.S. apple market has great growth potential and excellent prospects…
Post a Comment
Read more

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in FreshPlaza.com on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …
Post a Comment
Read more