Skip to main content

Avocados in Charts - Record volumes send prices to bellow pre-stike levels


Bellow is the exact same chart I use to open my previous article Avocados in Charts: How does the Mexican growers’ strike compare to 2016?. If you haven't read it yet, I highly recommend it, as pretty much every scenario laid out has played out as expected.

So moving forward in time five weeks we can see very clearly the effects of the strike which started affecting the markets on the 30th of October. A massive gap in shipments complemented by rising prices, followed immediately by a huge swell in volume quickly bringing prices down even below pre-strike levels.

US Monthly Grape Shipping Point Historical Prices
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]

Comparing the last four years of volume data aggregated weekly the effects of the strike are even more pronounced. Hitting not only the lowest volume that any one week has recorded in the last four years, but quickly spiking, setting a new record for the most volume ever shipped week 47, which is also the second highest volume ever recorded. The highest being week 1 of 2016, which I actually suspect might have been an accounting error by the USDA’s reporting system, as the week prior had an unusually low volume and doesn't really match up with the trends observed the last couple of years.

US Monthly Grape Historical Volumes (KG)
(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)
[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here*]


So after 16 days of striking and a massive shock to the markets, what does this all add up to? In the article by FreshFruitPortal Mexican avocado strikes end as agreement is reached

Ramon Paz, a spokesperson for the association, said that the parties had “agreed to increase the transparency of information so that everyone knows the reality of the market, the costs and the marketing margins.”. This last point was exactly what I had suggested in the last article and something that I strongly encourage. I also mentioned, I believe that there are a lot of reasons why the supply chain isn’t as transparent as it could be, but with a renewed emphasis on the subject I am very curious to see what the industry will come up with.


Written by: Colin Fain

Originally published in FreshFruitPortal.com on December 18, 2018 (Link)

*To view historics click on this icon in the table. In the historics report you can change viewing to reflect seasons that cross New Years.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Blueberry boom: Worldwide growth creates challenges for NW producers

Overview of the northwest blueberry season by Doug Krahmer of Berries Northwest, Cort Brazelton of Fall Creek Farm and Nursery, Kasey Cronquist of the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council and Mark Hurst of Hurst's Berry Farm, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published in www.capitalpress.com  on July 30, 2020 ALBANY, Ore. — On a seasonably warm July afternoon in the fertile Willamette Valley, Doug Krahmer stood between rows of organic blueberries and watched as a large mechanical harvester rolled slowly through the field, rattling bushes heavy with ripe fruit. Measuring a little more than 15 feet tall, 11 feet wide and weighing 7 tons, the harvester seemingly floated in the distance over neat rows while fiberglass rods, or “fingers,” shook the berries onto a conveyor belt that swooped them to the upper deck and into plastic crates. From there, the crates were loaded into refrigerated trucks and driven from the farm north of Albany, Ore., to a packing shed ea

The table grape industry is in uncharted territory right now

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published in FreshPlaza.com  on March 24, 2020 While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.” With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to i

Agronometrics in Charts: The Role of Mexican Blueberries in the U.S. Market

As Mexico's season just reached its peak, the opportunity lends itself to look a bit deeper at the origin in the U.S. markets. The rise of Mexican blueberries in the U.S. market has been no small achievement. In 2010, they represented a mere blip on the map. In 2019, with 75 M lbs, they were the second largest importer of fresh blueberries to the U.S., second only to Chile, but with Peru trailing closely behind Mexico. Historic Volumes | Non-Organic Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here ) In 2010, the landscape for blueberries was very different from what it is today. Chile has grown considerably, the U.S.’s production has evened out more, pushing more volume into April and May, and of course, Mexico is now a primary source through this time period.   U.S. Volumes by Origin 2010 | Non-Organic   U.S. Volumes by Origin 2019 | Non-Organic Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics . (Agrono