Agronometrics Blog

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future oranges supply and price, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in FreshPlaza.com on March 26, 2020

Oranges are seeing a serious spike in demand in North America that is likely tied to the COVID-19 virus making its way throughout the continent.

“We’re seeing increased demand from retail and wholesale while the foodservice sector has slowed down. That’s to be expected because of the change in the hours of operation and the manner in which foodservice can operate their businesses,” says Keith Wilson with Cecelia Packing Corporation in Orange Cove, Ca. “We’re in a demand exceeds supply situation right now.”

East Coast suppliers are seeing the same thing. “With the COVID-19 virus this last week, we’ve seen a pretty big spike in orange demand. People are trying to up their vitamin C so we’ve seen an increase in sales,” says GT Parris of Seald Sweet in Vero Beach, Fl. “While sales were normal, this definitely wi…

Overview of the potential impact of COVID-19 on future grape supply and price, by Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in FreshPlaza.com on March 24, 2020

While the Chilean and Peruvian grape seasons are winding down and their weekly volumes are decreasing, the table grape industry has seen an uptick in demand in the past weeks. This is partially a result of the high retail movements due to the coronavirus panic-shopping of the past few weeks. Ira Greenstein of Direct Source Marketing says: “A month ago, importers had a real concern that the industry wouldn’t be able to move through the condensed volumes and huge inventories would be sitting in cold storages. That sentiment has completely reversed with substantially increased retail demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

With the lower volumes but increasing demand, the cold stores are rapidly being depleted and spot market pricing is expected to continue to increase, …

For many people, the events and shutdowns resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak have brought about harrowing times unlike anything they have known before. At the beginning of the month, many were contemptuous regarding Covid-19. Shortly after Italy went on lockdown on March 9 and Israel shocked the world by imposing a 14-day quarantine on anyone arriving in their country, the tone changed.

These previously “extreme” measures are now commonplace around the globe, and many borders, even in Europe, are shut altogether. The U.S. belatedly woke up to the threat, imposing restrictions on social gatherings at varying degrees from state to state. Without the opportunity for these measures to take effect yet, the progression of the virus has continued to increase dramatically, causing panic, emptying store shelves and in some cases turning neighbors against neighbors.

And the threat is real. The Imperial College in London estimates that without intervention 2.2 million people could die of …

Price Alerts are a tool that Agronometrics makes available to its customers and users to the free trial. The alerts indicate that the average daily price of a commodity has risen or fallen by more than a specific threshold calculated to create approximately 12 reports a year.

To take into account the changes in the volatility of the Commodities we work with, we periodically adjust the thresholds so that they better represent our present reality. The below limits are calculated using the daily prices of each commodity from 02 Jan 2017 through 20 Mar 2020.

These thresholds were updated in the system on the 23 March 2020.

Price Alert! Thresholds by Commodity (Non-Organic)
FruitMeasureLimit LowLimit HighAPPLESPrice Per Package-$0.7926$0.8500ASPARAGUSPrice Per Kilo-$0.6018$0.6061AVOCADOSPrice Per Package-$2.5772$2.6945BLACKBERRIESPrice Per Package-$1.6179$1.6485BLUEBERRIESPrice Per Kilo-$0.7773$0.8042CHERRIESPrice Per Kilo-$0.3928$0.4458CLEMENTINESPrice Per Kilo-$0.1112

News in Charts: Overview of the of the California avocado season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in ThePacker.com on March 20, 2020

California’s avocado crop is expected to rebound in 2020, with the state’s growers shipping 369 million pounds — about a 70% increase over last year — according to the Irvine-based California Avocado Commission.

Historic volumes (in LB) of California´s avocados in the US market.


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Early-season volume slightly exceeded projections, the commission reported, and industry expectations are that volume will peak from April through July and continue through Labor Day.

A lot of harvesting already was going on in February, said Bob Lucy, partner at Del Rey Avocado Co. Inc., Fallbrook, Calif.

“Prices are crazy strong,” he said.

F.o.b. prices for two-layer cartons of size 48 avocados from Southern California were mostly $56.25-58.…

News in Charts: Overview of the end of the Chilean blueberry season and the beginning of the local US production, by Tom Beaver of Sunny Valley International, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.


Original published in Freshplaza.com on March 16, 2020

As the season for imported blueberries begins winding down, supplies out of Chile are tightening up.

“Compared with the same period last year, supplies out of Chile are tighter which has resulted in strong market demand for blueberries in recent weeks,” says Tom Beaver of Glassboro, N.J.-based Sunny Valley International. “With volumes out of Mexico increasing and Florida entering the market, this may shift, though the Chilean import season is nearing completion for this year.”

Volumes (in KG) of Chilean Blueberries in the US market during the current 2019 / 2020 season


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Beaver notes that as tapering continues from Chile, Mexican…

News in Charts: Overview of the mexican avocado volumes in US, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in www.agweb.com on March 16, 2020

Dominated by Mexican fruit, total U.S. imports of avocados rose 6.4% in 2019 to more than 1.1 million metric tons.

U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics show that total imports of 1.11 million metric tons of avocados rated 6.4% above 2018 imports of 1.04 million metric tons and 22.7% more than 2017 imports of 900,198 metric tons.

Historic avocado volumes in US market


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
U.S. imports of Mexican avocados in 2019 totaled 946,000 metric tons, up 7.8% from 2018 and a whopping 26% more than 2017. Mexico accounted for 88% of the volume of U.S. avocado imports in 2019, compared with 87% in 2018 and 86% in 2017.

Mexican avocado volumes in US market


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart…

News in Charts: Overview of the upcoming mango supply ahead of Cinco de Mayo, by Ashley Nickle in interview with Sandra Aguilar, Jessie Capote and Matthew Matalucci, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.



Original published in Thepacker.com on March 16, 2020

Mango shippers expect ample supplies for the week leading up to Cinco de Mayo.

Origins of mangoes in the US market in 2019, in the weeks leading up to Cinco de Mayo (Week 19)


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
“In the weeks leading up to the holiday, we will be packing fruit from three different growing regions: Michoacán, Chiapas and Nayarit,” said Sandra Aguilar, marketing and strategic planning for Rio Rico, Ariz.-based Ciruli Bros.

Volumes (in LB) of Mexican mangoes in the US market in 2018 and 2019, in the weeks leading up to Cinco de Mayo (Week 19)


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates he…