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Agronometrics in Charts: Potential impact of trucker strike on Peruvian exports to the U.S.

The announcement last week that truckers from Piura in Peru could go on strike is an eyecatching headline, as the situation threatens to disrupt fresh produce supplies from the region. In this article, I want to shed some light on what Peru’s season looks like and what could be at stake because of this strike.

The truckers are demanding that the government remove tolls for heavy goods vehicles passing from Piura to the port of Paita. I could elaborate on this more, but this article already does a pretty good job, so I’ll let the readers dig in as they see fit. The part this story I can best help shed some light on, is what the effect of a strike in Piura could have on the U.S. markets.

First some background. Piura is the northernmost region on the Pacific side of the country. It is also one of the most important agricultural regions. Piura's port in Paita offers the region a certain degree of commercial autonomy that has allowed it to enjoy a steady and hearty level of growth o…
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High expectations for the Chilean blueberry this season

Overview of the Chilean blueberry season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.  

Original published in FreshPlaza.comon October 26, 2020 
The pandemic has boosted the consumption of healthy and beneficial foods, such as fresh blueberries, and increased their demand globally. This is good news for blueberry-producing countries, which now expect to increase the volumes they will market this season and achieve better prices.

Optimism in Chile

Chile has very high expectations. The country has been emerging from a long period of adjustments in which the Chilean industry took different measures, including the replacement of varieties, to increase the quality of its fruits and they expect that the current circumstances will allow this industry to regain competitiveness and stability.

The outlook is positive for the 2020/2021 season. According to the Chilean Blueberry Committee, the country has more than 18,000 hectares of blueberries that are expected to produce nearly 111,500 tons th…
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Peak of the Peruvian blueberry season now underway

Overview of the Peruvian blueberry season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.  

Original published in FreshPlaza.comon October 22, 2020 
The Peruvian blueberry season started off a few months ago and the exported volumes suggest that it is already at its peak. The season saw a bit of a staggered start, with some growers starting early, others on time, and some seeing a few weeks delay. Aziz El Sous of Grupo Athos says: “Blueberry exports are concentrated between September and December. For us, we saw a few weeks delay in our harvest towards the end of September and beginning of October because of warm weather. But we’ve caught up now, and the season has been going well.”

Volumes (in LB) of Peruvian blueberry in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Peru’s blueberry volumes increase

This year, the overall volumes of blueberries out of Peru are seeing a big increase, El Sous says. “The projection…
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Good US demand for Semil variety of Tropical Avocados

Overview of the Dominican Republic avocado exports to the US market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.  

Original published in FreshPlaza.comon October 22, 2020 
While the Dominican Republic produces their Tropical Avocados year-round, the Semil variety of this fruit is the most demanded in the market due to its long shelf-life. The harvest for this variety started in September and these avocados will be available through February.

Growing US demand

The main destinations for the Tropical Avocados are in Europe, Central America, and the United States. Cesar Perez of Frescura Tropical says: “While the harvest already started in September, the US market only just opened for us - starting October 19th. Because there is domestic production in the US in Florida and California, the Dominican product isn’t allowed into the market until their seasons have wound down. The first product was sent on October 16th, to reach the ports of Miami on the 19th.”

Volume (KG) of avocados from Dom…
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California table grape harvest moving steadily to December conclusion

Overview of the California table grape season, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.  

Original published in FreshPlaza.comon October 20, 2020 
Under sunny fall skies the harvest of table grapes continues in the San Joaquin Valley, moving steadily toward its December conclusion according to Kathleen Nave, president of the California Table Grape Commission.

“Fall is a beautiful time of year to harvest grapes in California,” said Nave. “The vineyards are full of fruit, the mornings are cool and the afternoons are sunny and warm but not hot.” Nave said that many of the newer varieties of grapes were bred to be harvested in the fall. “Nearly 50 percent of the California grape volume is shipped to consumers from October through January,” she said, “making California grapes very much a fall and early winter fruit.”

Volume (in LB) of grapes from California in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Accordin…
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Agronometrics in Charts: Berry prices in the U.S. market

This week we're going to check out how prices of blueberries, raspberries, strawberries and blackberries have been behaving in the U.S. market compared to previous seasons.

Blueberries

Let's start with blueberries, which over recent weeks have seen similar prices to 2019, although they have improved somewhat over the last two weeks.

Looking at the chart below, we can see that in week 42, the average price of conventional blueberries was US$9.07 per kilo, which is 8% higher than in 2019. Volumes are coming from Mexico and Peru.

Prices of non-organic blueberries in the U.S. market (USD per kilo)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Raspberries

Raspberries meanwhile have throughout this year experience sharp peaks and valleys, although in recent weeks prices have tended to stabilize.

As can be seen in the chart below, in week 42 prices were US$8.39 per kilo, which is 18% up on 2019. The U.S. market's sup…
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Mexico continues to increase its agricultural exports to the US

Overview of the Mexican strawberries exports to the US market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.  

Original published in HortiDaily.comon September 30, 2020 
Mexico's investment and adoption of new agricultural technologies have helped the country's export sector to improve its production and increase the volumes it ships to one of its main markets, the US.

In the last 8 years, Mexican strawberry shipments to the US increased by 17.3% a year, totaling 842 million dollars in 2019. Mexico is the world's third-biggest strawberry producer and its main export destination is the USA, where it exports more than 90% of its production. Mexico produces strawberries in 10 entities, the most outstanding of which are Michoacán, Guanajuato, Baja California, and Baja California Sur.

Volume (KG) of strawberries from Mexico in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Pepper exports to the US have incre…
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Ecuador forecasts lighter and flatter mango season

Overview of the Ecuadorian mangoes supply in the US market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.  

Original published in FreshFruitPortal.comon October 12, 2020 
Ecuadorian mango volumes are set to fall by 5% year-on-year during the 2020-21 season, according to an industry representative.

Bernardo Malo, president of the Mango Ecuador Foundation, told FreshFruitPortal.com that last season around 13m boxes had been exported, but that this year it will likely be around 12.4m boxes.

The main factor behind this decline is the weather, especially the low temperatures in growing regions over recent months.

In addition, the industry is experiencing an off-bearing year, he said.

Around 80% of production is sent to the U.S., with most of the rest going to Canada, Europe, Mexico and Chile.

Volume (KG) of mangoes from Ecuador in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
The peak export weeks are expected to be…
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North America receives kiwi fruit from New Zealand, Chile, and Italy

Overview of the kiwi supply by Mario Masellis of Catania Worldwide in Mississauga, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.  

Original published in FreshPlaza.comon October 16, 2020 
Supplies of kiwi are good right now as multiple countries are shipping to the North American market.

“We’re steady in our supplies for our customers but generally there seems to be a large amount of fruit coming into the U.S. market specifically. That will trickle into Canada as well,” says Mario Masellis of Catania Worldwide in Mississauga, Ontario. He notes it’s the time of year when not only fruit is available from New Zealand and Chile but Italy is also starting on its early varieties. “I think people are trying to get out of their current programs with New Zealand and Chile to make room for the new kiwi coming,” says Masellis.

Origins of Kiwi in the US market Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Increased demand

Meanwhile, it’s …
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Peru is expected to produce and export more table grapes this season

Overview of the Peruvian table grapes supply in the US market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics.  

Original published in FreshPlaza.comon October 15, 2020 
According to the general manager of the Peruvian Table Grape Producers Association (Provid), Carlos Zamorano Macchiavello, the production and export of table grapes in the 2020/2021 campaign, which has already begun, will increase by 10% to 15%, thanks to the new varieties that have entered production in the north and south of the country.

The production of seedless grapes will increase, he said, so we'll see how much that will reduce the participation of the Red Globe variety, which in the 2019/2020 campaign stood at 37%.

Zamorano said that Peru had just over 20,000 hectares of table grapes for export at the beginning of last season (2019/2020) and that, according to a first projection, this season there would be a 3.5% increase. However, most of the growth won't be due to new areas, but to a change in varieties …
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