Agronometrics Blog

Last week saw avocado prices take a healthy jump from an average of US$33.28 to US$38.89. Interestingly, this jump comes on the same week as prices rallied in 2017. The question we are left with is: will this season develop like 2017, which saw some of the highest pricing that the market has seen from weeks 7 to 12?

Non-organic avocado prices reported


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
So far, things look to be developing very much in line with 2017. The latest pricing data for week 8 puts the pricing at around US$46, following a trend that is very close to 2017.

If we look at the volumes though, the story is dramatically different, where 2017 saw consistently low volumes through week 25, 2020 saw some of the largest volumes ever recorded leading up to the Super Bowl, dropping off dramatically in week 6 only to jump up again to record levels in week 7.

Non-organic avocado volumes


Source: USDA Market News via Agro…

Argentina may be poised to ship more lemons into the U.S. come May.

Currently, domestic production on lemons comes largely from California on both the West and East Coasts. This is because there are some concerns with crops from other countries currently producing lemons.

“Turkey is basically done with lemons. They had a very bad crop of Interdonato variety and they didn’t compensate the volume they needed for both the domestic and the international markets,” says Luis Elortondo of Salix Fruits LLC, a US fruit importer/exporter specializing in citrus and based in Atlanta, Ga. “It’s a similar situation in Spain. Now they have a good crop of the late variety, Verna. But because of Turkey, there’s more demand from European customers. So they’ll finish their inventory sooner than normal.”

Historics lemon volumes from Spain in US market (Kilos)


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updateshere)
California will also likely finish…

Of all of the exports that have entered into the U.S. market in the past 20 years, avocados have definitely made the biggest splash. And of those avocado exporters, Mexico has pulled ahead as the clear winner in the market.

Shown below is the incremental rise of Mexican avocado exports across time. Mexican avocados entry into the market had huge ripple effects for the entire market. In particular, avocados have done well during the week of the Super Bowl and during that time, avocados - mainly made into guacamole - have been bought in greater numbers.

Volumes (kg) of avocados in the U.S. 2000-2020


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
The Super Bowl is the most viewed sports event worldwide, surpassing even the soccer world cup. And because of the event's popularity, exports of avocados to the U.S. heat up in the days leading up to the game.

Volumes (kg) of Mexican avocados in the U.S. 2000-2020


Source: USDA…

Pear crop in the Northwest region of the U.S. is steady, Superfresh Growers updated on the state of the pear season this Friday. Superfresh is the largest organic pear supplier in the Northwest of the U.S.

As Anjou and Bosc variety pears are are good supply currently, with figures looking consistent with the 2017-18 harvest, the industry expects that it will not have to import organic pears to complement the domestic season.

The growers say that the pace of pear movement across the region is favorable as supplies look like they'll last all the way until April for the industry's annual spring promotions.

Volumes (kg) of organic pears in the U.S. market.


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
"We are enjoying a good supply on Anjou pears right up to new crop pear season. There will not be a need to buy outside of the U.S., as domestic supply is healthy," explained Catherine Gipe-Steward of Super…

"Twenty years is nothing," one Argentine tango singer once said. However, for the blueberry business, that might be all that there is. Chilean blueberry exports hit their boom in 2000 and since then - despite the fact that volumes continue rising year after year - prices haven't changed much. Business remains relatively stable and producers and exporters alike have adapted throughout the years, never complaining about the state of the industry, but there has always been a downward trend in pricing.

In 2019, the industry saw the lowest average prices in the history of Chilean blueberry exports. As shown below, prices were about US$6.22/kg.

Volumes (kg) and prices (USD/kg) of Chilean blueberries in the U.S. market 2000-2020


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
But this article shows how the scene is changing and prices have plummeted for the Honeycrisp in the past few months.

Growth of Chilean blu…

In a recent 'In Charts' we called the Honeycrisp variety the "queen of the US". This was because, historically, it has had the highest prices per kilogram out of all apple varieties in the market. The variety has significantly set itself out from the rest.

Apples prices in the U.S. by variety (USD/kg)


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
But this article shows how the scene is changing and prices have plummeted for the Honeycrisp in the past few months.

Prices have hit an all-time low, the lowest they've seen in 9 years. While it still has some of the best prices relative to other varieties, the difference isn't as big as it was before.

Honeycrisp prices in the U.S. by month (UDS/kg)


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
The fall in prices is more notable in the following graph, which shows the progression of pr…

Rounding off on the year we are happy to publish the articles that have been best received by our readers in 2019. We hope you enjoy the reads as we look forward to an exciting 2020.

1. Avocados In Charts: Prices are falling and why are they likely to settle below 20182. Apples in Charts: Honeycrisp, the queen of the U.S. market3. Fruit in Charts: The winners and losers of 2018
(Part 3 of 3)

4. Price Alerts! are here for all5. Fruit in Charts: The winners and losers of 2018
(Part 2 of 3)6. Blueberries In Charts - Higher prices are coming!7. Avocados in Charts: Market jumps US$5 in one week on California shortfall8. Pears in Charts: Recent pricing pushed below previous years’ levels9. Blueberries in Charts: A look at Chile's export forecast in turbulent waters10. Blueberries in Charts: Finding opportunities in the gaps

A few weeks ago the first volumes of Chilean nectarines and peaches reached the U.S. Here, we will take a look at how prices have been behaving in the market so far. Previously, we have explained how Chilean cherries have been performing in the U.S. market.

Currently, nectarine prices are a bit lower than they were at this time last year. Average nectarine prices for week 3 were US$1.93/kg. During the same period last year, nectarine prices were at US$2.17, showing a 29.5% decrease.

Nectarine Prices in U.S. Market (USD/kg)


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
Similarly, peach prices have been down as well. As shown in the chart below, while peach prices are lower than last year, the decline isn't as large as with nectarine prices. In the third week, average prices were US$1.74/kg, 10% lower than the same time last year.

Peach Prices in U.S. Market (USD/kg)


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agro…

Over the last 15 Years, US Highbush Blueberry production has skyrocketed, going from a modest 42 M Kilos in 2005 to an impressive 124 M Kilos in 2014 after increasing every single year over the 9 year period. The last 5 years have since leveled off, defining a new epoch forUS Blueberries.

US Blueberry Volumes (Kilos)


Source: USDA Market News via the IBO and Agronometrics. (View this chart with live updates here)
Through this tremendous increase in volume the laws of supply and demand have taken hold, discounting the product by around half its average yearly price over the 15 year period.

Non-Organic Blueberry Prices (USD per Kilo)


Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can
view this chart with live updates here)
The chart above is the average of local and imported fruit, however when looking at just US prices, the scenario is actually more stable with origins such as New Jersey and North Carolina actually seeing an increase in their pricing over this time…